Australia’s record high migrant intakes look likely to continue, with Immigration Minister Chris Evans indicating the global financial crisis would result in only modest cuts to this year’s program.
As the fallout from the economic crisis continues to spread, Senator Evans is understood to be sympathetic to fears by business groups that drastic cuts could ruin Australia’s image in the global skills marketplace.
The West Australian senator said a small cut to the skilled migrant quota was still “more likely than not”, but business groups have been lobbying him to hold his nerve in the face of a deteriorating economy.
“What business has been very clear about is that you shouldn’t overreact,” Senator Evans said. “It is a global market, so your reputation and your brand is quite important.
“So certainly a lot of the advice is: don’t ruin the brand by knee-jerk reactions, because we’re going to be wanting to recruit in these areas, if not this year, then the year after.”
Australia’s immigration program is at an all-time high following an increase of 31,000 permanent migrants, announced in May.
The increase brought the total number of skilled migrants to 133,500, plus 56,500 family reunion places and 13,500 humanitarian visas.
Overall, Australia is taking more than 200,000 new immigrants a year. The largest jump in permanent settlers occurred under the Howard government.
In 1995-96, the year Mr Howard won government, about 99,000 people settled permanently in Australia. By 2007-08, that number had increased to 150,000.
Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry president Peter Anderson cautioned against bowing to growing calls by the union movement to cut the skilled migration program, including the 457 temporary skilled migration program.
“A downturn of 1-2 per cent is not a proper basis for recalibrating a skilled migration program,” Mr Anderson told The Australian “It needs to be looked at in the context of emerging gaps in labour market demand. Our caution to the Government is not to jump at shadows or look solely at the macro data.”
Mr Anderson said the consequences of a cut would be to place a drag on the productive capacity of the economy at a time when it was most needed.
He said sudden oscillations in the migrant program could damage Australia’s reputation as a migrant-friendly country.
Australian Industry Group chief executive Heather Ridout said the lead time with assimilating migrants into the economy was years, not months, meaning impulsive cuts to the quota might not be felt until well after the present crisis had passed.
She said the longer-term outlook for the Australian economy – with an ageing population and a generation of Baby Boomers set to retire – was that migrants would be required en masse.
“We’d be disappointed if there was anything other than a shallow cut,” Ms Ridout said. “A deep cut would be about politics, not about policy.”
Senator Evans indicated he was alive to the political challenges of assimilating large numbers of migrants at a time of rising unemployment.
“There’s no doubt in my view that there’s a strong link between the economic cycle and people’s attitude towards immigration,” he said.
“That’s something politicians have to be sensitive to.”
- Paul Maley, The Australian
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